{"product_id":"harlow-composite-recession-indicator-hcri","title":"Harlow Composite Recession Indicator (HCRI)","description":"\u003cp class=\"PDq2pG_selectionAnchorContainer\"\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eA systematic framework for understanding where the U.S. economy stands in the business cycle, and when conditions begin to change.\u003c\/strong\u003e\u003cspan class=\"PDq2pG_selectionAnchor\"\u003e\u003c\/span\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe \u003cstrong\u003eHarlow Composite Recession Indicator (HCRI)\u003c\/strong\u003e is Pioneer Financial’s proprietary economic-cycle framework designed to identify meaningful shifts in U.S. economic conditions.\u003c\/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eRather than relying on a single economic data point, HCRI produces one continuously updated reading and classifies the economic environment into four intuitive regimes: \u003cstrong\u003eExpansion, Peak, Contraction, and Recession.\u003c\/strong\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eSubscribers receive access to the official \u003cstrong\u003einvite-only HCRI indicator on TradingView\u003c\/strong\u003e, where the HCRI line changes color as economic regimes evolve.\u003c\/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eHCRI also incorporates a dedicated \u003cstrong\u003eWatch \u0026amp; Warning system\u003c\/strong\u003e. A \u003cstrong\u003eWatch\u003c\/strong\u003e identifies the initial crossing of HCRI’s recession threshold, while a \u003cstrong\u003eWarning\u003c\/strong\u003e requires additional confirmation before escalating the signal—helping distinguish an initial deterioration from a more persistent recessionary condition.\u003c\/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eYour HCRI subscription includes:\u003c\/strong\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\n\u003cul\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eInvite-only access to the official HCRI TradingView indicator\u003c\/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eContinuously updated HCRI readings\u003c\/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eExpansion, Peak, Contraction, and Recession regime classifications\u003c\/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eHCRI Watch \u0026amp; Warning signals\u003c\/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eOngoing HCRI research and updates from Pioneer Financial\u003c\/li\u003e\n\u003cli\u003eAccess to HCRI’s prospective public record beginning August 2026\u003c\/li\u003e\n\u003c\/ul\u003e\n\u003ch3\u003eBuilt on Historical Research\u003c\/h3\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eHCRI v1.0 was frozen only after extensive historical testing across \u003cstrong\u003e10 NBER-designated U.S. recessions\u003c\/strong\u003e. In the historical study, HCRI identified \u003cstrong\u003e10 of 10 recessions with zero missed recessions and zero false-positive recession signals under the study methodology\u003c\/strong\u003e, with an average timing of approximately \u003cstrong\u003e+1.1 months relative to NBER recession onset\u003c\/strong\u003e.\u003c\/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eThe complete methodology, testing framework, benchmark comparisons, sensitivity analysis, and limitations are documented in the \u003cstrong\u003eHCRI v1.0 White Paper\u003c\/strong\u003e.\u003c\/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eHistorical and backtested results are not indicative of future performance.\u003c\/strong\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\n\u003ch3\u003eDesigned for Investors Who Want a Clearer View of the Cycle\u003c\/h3\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eHCRI is not designed to predict stock prices or tell investors what to buy or sell. It is designed to answer a broader question:\u003c\/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eAre underlying economic and financial conditions improving—or deteriorating?\u003c\/strong\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003eBy translating changing conditions into a single systematic framework, HCRI gives investors an objective way to monitor the business cycle without relying on headlines, narratives, or discretionary judgment.\u003c\/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cstrong\u003eGet access to HCRI and follow its prospective record in real time.\u003c\/strong\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e\n\u003cp\u003e\u003cem\u003eHCRI is provided for research and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Recession classifications produced by HCRI are model-generated signals and are not official determinations of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Past, historical, simulated, or backtested results do not guarantee future results.\u003c\/em\u003e\u003c\/p\u003e","brand":"Pioneer Financial, LLC","offers":[{"title":"Default Title","offer_id":41623100522554,"sku":null,"price":39.99,"currency_code":"USD","in_stock":true}],"thumbnail_url":"\/\/cdn.shopify.com\/s\/files\/1\/0583\/5433\/5802\/files\/Image8-29-26at12.52PM.jpg?v=1788039944","url":"https:\/\/pioneerfinancialllc.com\/products\/harlow-composite-recession-indicator-hcri","provider":"Pioneer Financial, LLC","version":"1.0","type":"link"}