Space Stocks Discover Gravity

July 19, 2026

Intro

The hopium in popular space names continues to evaporate after the sector has seen absolutely historic returns over the last couple of years. Now, space companies are experiencing some heavy gravity and, as a result, their stock prices are being brought back down to earth. It became clear to investors that many of these tickers were overvalued and trading on forward earnings that haven’t bore fruit (yet), coupled with the IPO news-hype of SpaceX earlier this year. We are watching a sector rotation as investors continue to sell the news from SpaceX going public on 12 June. Are space stocks still overvalued? Or are they trading at a supreme discount? Let’s find out.

What Happened

Space stocks have been routing for the better part of two months as investors take profits and remain cautious about future growth.

Here are the returns of big space names from their recent highs:

$RKLB $150.99-$67.62 -55.22%
$RDW $26.64-$8.45 -68.28%
$SIDU $6.79-$1.87 -72.46%
$SATL $12.00-$3.82 -68.17%
$KTOS $134.00-$46.03 -65.65%
$LUNR $46.75-$13.52 -71.08%
$PL $51.76-$22.47 -56.59%
$SPCX $225.64-$123.99 -45.05%

Why It Matters

Deep Discounts

These big names are now trading at tremendous discounts. I believe that the correction in space stocks has over-extended itself and they are now below fair-value. Let me explain. Here’s the same list of tickers along with Wall Street 12-month projections:

$RKLB $67.62: Deep Discount. With institutional price targets sitting around $120.00, Rocket Lab is trading at a massive ~43% discount to projections. Analysts are looking past current Neutron development costs toward its future monopoly on medium-lift launches.
$RDW $8.45: Deep Discount. The consensus average price target for Redwire rests at $14.88, representing a 76% expected upside from Friday’s close.
$SIDU $1.87: Distressed Discount. Lacking robust Wall Street consensus coverage due to its micro-cap status, its current price reflects a purely speculative tier. It is heavily discounted from historical highs, but lacks institutional projections to anchor to.
$SATL $3.82: Speculative Discount. Similar to SIDU, it trades at a massive discount to its legacy valuation, but analysts have largely pulled back active near-term growth targets as capital conditions tighten.
$KTOS $46.03: Modest Discount. Kratos is forecast closer to its actual trading range, with 52-week targets averaging around $51.46. Because it is tethered to the national defense budget, analysts price it with much less speculative premium.
$LUNR $13.52: Massive Discount. Wall Street’s 12-month average price target is pinned at $42.63. This implies an astronomical 215%+ upside potential, making it the most mathematically discounted stock in the clean-energy/space peer group.
$PL $22.47: Strong Discount. The analyst consensus price target hangs at $34.90. Despite recent insider sales and dilution anxieties, analysts see roughly 55% upside based on their expanding government surveillance contract backlog.
$SPCX $123.99: Institutional Reset. As the sector’s anchor, SpaceX doesn’t have traditional public equity consensus targets. However, its 45% plunge from its $225.64 post-IPO high represents a structural valuation reset rather than an analytical “miss.”

Now let’s talk about the 10 year plan for all of these names, this is essentially their valuation if they achieve all their stated goals. NOTE: A 10 year forecast is created by the company itself, subject to the biases of the board, and in no way guarantee future results.

$RKLB $67.62 -> $780.00 +1,053.50%
$RDW $8.45 -> $95.00 +1,024.26%
$SIDU $1.87 -> $28.00 +1,397.33%
$SATL $3.82 -> $52.00 +1,261.26%
$KTOS $46.03 -> $380.00 +725.55%
$LUNR $13.52 -> $165.00 +1,120.41%
$PL $22.47 -> $205.00 +812.33%
$SPCX $123.99 -> $1,400.00 +1,029.12%

Of course, these projections are extremely generous, and the odds are not in investors favor that they will all hit their marks. However, let’s do a little experiment. Let’s pretend you have $8,000 and put that into the S&P 500, versus $8,000 divided evenly between these companies for 10 years.

The S&P 500 Benchmark: If an investor puts $8,000 into the S&P 500 today, and it compounds at a steady historical baseline of 10% a year, that capital will grow to $20,750 in ten years. To beat the market, an active portfolio must clear this exact hurdle.
How the basket performs if there are six bankruptcies: If an investor builds this basket, and an absolute worst-case macro catastrophe hits, causing six out of the eight companies to go completely bankrupt ($0), the portfolio can still soundly defeat the S&P 500.
The Winning Pairs: If just the two institutional category leaders, SpaceX ($SPCX) and Rocket Lab ($RKLB), hit their perfect-execution wickets, their combined value alone grows to $22,826 ($11,291 + $11,535). The investor completely absorbs six total failures and still beats the S&P 500 by over $2,000. If a micro-cap like Sidus Space ($SIDU) hits its wicket alongside just one other average performer, the portfolio jumps past $23,000, outperforming the index with ease.

What this means in one sentence: In the highly unlikely event that six out of eight of these names go bankrupt, you can still easily beat the S&P 500 on a 10 year time horizon. If all companies perform modestly well, you will crush the S&P 500. This is why I’m extremely bullish on space.

What’s Next?

A Buying Opportunity

I fully subscribe to the idea that these names are now undervalued, not because of Wall Street projections, but because we are still VERY EARLY in space exploration. With SpaceX leading the charge to mars, smaller names will help provide a lot of the infrastructure and will ride the wave as a result. I will be averaging into all of these names for the foreseeable future. They may continue trending down, however they are all reaching long-term support levels. In the Technical Tuesdays article on June 23, I made this claim regarding Planet Labs ($PL):

"Immediate Support

$26.80 — 50% Fibonacci retracement

$20.90 — 61.8% Fibonacci retracement (”Golden Pocket”)

$21.65 — 50-week moving average

The area around $21 represents the most important support zone on the chart. A successful defense of this region would help preserve the longer-term bullish structure."

Here is the updated chart for Planet Labs:

Retrieved From: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/PAIfo4NN/?symbol=SP%3ASPX on July 19, 2026.

NOTICE: $PL retraced to within $0.15 of my target and bounced! Could it go lower? Of course, but this is a very strong support level. All other names I’ve listed are closing in on similar levels.

In Short

I’ve been bullish on space for years, yet after this drawdown I am excited for the buying opportunity it presents.
Only a few of these companies need to succeed to soundly beat the S&P 500 on a 10-year time horizon.
SPACE IS A BUY (not financial advice).

Thanks for reading! Until next time, good luck out there and Godspeed.

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References

McKinsey & Company, & World Economic Forum. (2024, April 8). The space economy is booming—How to capture the momentum. McKinsey & Company. https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/aerospace-and-defense/our-insights/the-space-economy-is-booming-how-to-capture-the-momentum

Morgan Stanley Research. (2020, July 24). Space: Investing in the final frontier. Morgan Stanley. https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/investing-in-space

ProcureAM. (2026). Procure Space ETF (UFO) fund holdings and performance data. ProcureETFs. https://procureetfs.com/ufo/

Tema ETFs. (2026). Tema Space Innovators ETF (NASA) portfolio analytics and sector allocations. Tema ETFs. https://temaetfs.com/nasa/

U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. (2026). Company filings search for Rocket Lab USA, Inc. (CIK 0001819994) and AST SpaceMobile, Inc. (CIK 0001799243). SEC EDGAR. https://www.sec.gov/edgar/searchedgar/companysearch

Disclaimer:

The views and opinions expressed in The Pioneer Perspective are those of Daniel Harlow and Pioneer Financial, LLC and are provided for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing in this publication constitutes financial, investment, tax, or legal advice.

Market data and information are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but their accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and all investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal.

Readers are encouraged to conduct their own research or consult a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.

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