Pioneer Financial Research
Harlow Composite
Recession Indicator
A systematic framework for identifying changes in the U.S. business cycle.
HCRI transforms changing economic and financial conditions into a single, continuously updated recession-risk framework designed to provide a clear and objective view of the U.S. business cycle.
August 2026 marks the beginning of HCRI's prospective public record.
The Framework
What Is HCRI?
The Harlow Composite Recession Indicator (HCRI) is a proprietary framework designed to identify meaningful changes in the U.S. business cycle.
HCRI synthesizes changing economic and financial conditions into one continuously updated reading, providing a forward-looking perspective on whether underlying conditions are improving or deteriorating.
Rather than relying on headlines or discretionary judgment, HCRI provides investors with a systematic framework that is designed to be clear, objective, and actionable.
Economic Cycle Classification
Understanding the HCRI Cycle
HCRI classifies the economic environment into four intuitive regimes, allowing changes in the business cycle to be identified at a glance.
Expansion
Sustained improvement under the HCRI framework.
Peak
Elevated conditions accompanied by emerging deterioration.
Contraction
Sustained deterioration in HCRI and the broader economic environment.
Recession
HCRI has crossed its predefined recession threshold.
Signal Confirmation
Watch & Warning System
HCRI distinguishes between an initial recession-threshold breach and a confirmed deterioration through its Watch & Warning system.
HCRI has crossed below its recession threshold. This signals that recession risk has increased and conditions warrant heightened attention.
HCRI remains below its recession threshold for a second consecutive month, upgrading the prior Watch to a Warning.
Historical Validation
Historical Research
HCRI v1.0 was frozen following extensive historical testing across ten NBER-designated U.S. recessions.
Studied
Historical Backtest
Recessions
Per Study Methodology
vs. NBER Onset
Historical and backtested performance is not a guarantee of future results.
Historical Comparison
Benchmark Comparison
HCRI's historical results were evaluated alongside widely followed recession indicators using a consistent research framework.
| Indicator | Recessions Identified | Missed Recessions | False Positives | Avg. Timing vs. NBER Onset |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HCRI (v1.0) | 10/10 | 0 | 0 | +1.1 Months |
| Sahm Rule | 10/10 | 0 | 4 | +5.5 Months |
| 10Y–2Y Yield Curve | 7/10 | 3 | 0 | +11.0 Months |
| Leading Economic Index (LEI) | 9/10 | 1 | 4 | +5.5 Months |
See the HCRI v1.0 White Paper for definitions, methodology, benchmark construction, historical testing procedures, and limitations.
Research
The HCRI White Paper
RECESSION INDICATOR HCRI v1.0
WHITE PAPER
Read the complete HCRI research paper covering the research framework, historical testing, parameter-sensitivity analysis, benchmark comparison, and limitations.
READ / DOWNLOAD WHITE PAPERSubscriber Access
Get Access to HCRI
Follow HCRI's prospective record through the official subscriber-only TradingView indicator.
- Invite-only access to the official HCRI TradingView indicator
- Continuously updated HCRI readings
- Expansion, Peak, Contraction, and Recession classifications
- HCRI Watch & Warning signals
- Prospective public record beginning August 2026
- Future HCRI research and updates from Pioneer Financial
Pioneer Financial
Follow the Business Cycle Through HCRI
Get subscriber access to the official Harlow Composite Recession Indicator and follow its prospective record as economic conditions evolve.
GET ACCESS TO HCRIDisclosures
The Harlow Composite Recession Indicator (HCRI) is provided for research and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, or an offer to buy or sell any security. Historical, simulated, and backtested results are not indicative of future performance and do not guarantee future results. Recession classifications produced by HCRI are model-generated classifications under the HCRI framework and are not official determinations of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). HCRI may produce false signals, delayed signals, or fail to identify future economic turning points. Investors should conduct their own research and consider their individual circumstances before making investment decisions.