Harlow Composite Recession Indicator (HCRI)

A systematic framework for understanding where the U.S. economy stands in the business cycle, and when conditions begin to change.

The Harlow Composite Recession Indicator (HCRI) is Pioneer Financial’s proprietary economic-cycle framework designed to identify meaningful shifts in U.S. economic conditions.

Rather than relying on a single economic data point, HCRI produces one continuously updated reading and classifies the economic environment into four intuitive regimes: Expansion, Peak, Contraction, and Recession.

Subscribers receive access to the official invite-only HCRI indicator on TradingView, where the HCRI line changes color as economic regimes evolve.

HCRI also incorporates a dedicated Watch & Warning system. A Watch identifies the initial crossing of HCRI’s recession threshold, while a Warning requires additional confirmation before escalating the signal—helping distinguish an initial deterioration from a more persistent recessionary condition.

Your HCRI subscription includes:

• Invite-only access to the official HCRI TradingView indicator
• Continuously updated HCRI readings
• Expansion, Peak, Contraction, and Recession regime classifications
• HCRI Watch & Warning signals
• Ongoing HCRI research and updates from Pioneer Financial
• Access to HCRI’s prospective public record beginning August 2026

Built on Historical Research

HCRI v1.0 was frozen only after extensive historical testing across 10 NBER-designated U.S. recessions. In the historical study, HCRI identified 10 of 10 recessions with zero missed recessions and zero false-positive recession signals under the study methodology, with an average timing of approximately +1.1 months relative to NBER recession onset.

The complete methodology, testing framework, benchmark comparisons, sensitivity analysis, and limitations are documented in the HCRI v1.0 White Paper.

Historical and backtested results are not indicative of future performance.

Designed for Investors Who Want a Clearer View of the Cycle

HCRI is not designed to predict stock prices or tell investors what to buy or sell. It is designed to answer a broader question:

Are underlying economic and financial conditions improving—or deteriorating?

By translating changing conditions into a single systematic framework, HCRI gives investors an objective way to monitor the business cycle without relying on headlines, narratives, or discretionary judgment.

Get access to HCRI and follow its prospective record in real time.

HCRI is provided for research and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Recession classifications produced by HCRI are model-generated signals and are not official determinations of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). Past, historical, simulated, or backtested results do not guarantee future results.