|
Intro
What a historic week in the market. And yes, I use the word “historic” literally because we just witnessed the largest IPO in history hit the tape Friday. SpaceX ($SPCX) priced its historic IPO at $135/share, implying an initial $1.77 trillion valuation. But the second the public floodgates opened in the late morning hours Friday, the stock went from an opening price of $150.00 into the $170s. While Blue Origin’s rockets were busy making very expensive grenades out of themselves (link to story in references), SpaceX was busy exploding past the $2 trillion valuation mark in the first seconds of trading. As a result, Elon Musk is now the world’s first trillionaire (by the way, as I write this there is a spellcheck on the word “trillionaire” which only emphasizes how monumental that milestone is).
On the macro-economic side we also saw CPI come in elevated at 4.2% YoY, the highest level since 2023.
(Fun fact, the world’s first billionaire was John D. Rockefeller in the year 1916.)
What Happened
-
SpaceX officially opened at $150.00/share, but immediately bid to a high of $176.52, before settling down in the afternoon and closing at $160.95. The company’s market cap is now a staggering $2.1 trillion.
-
Other space stocks tumbled on the day, likely due to a “sell the news” phenomenon mixed with capital-allocation profit taking to buy into SpaceX.
-
CPI increased by 0.5%, bringing the YoY print to +4.2%. Inflation is now elevated to numbers we haven’t seen in almost three years, adding to an already tense board of Fed governors just one week before FOMC.
-
Here is the first daily chart for SpaceX:
Retrieved from: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/PAIfo4NN/?symbol=AMEX%3ASPY on 06/13/2026
-
Here is the monthly chart for inflation on a YoY basis:
Retrieved from: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/PAIfo4NN/?symbol=AMEX%3ASPY on 06/13/2026
Note: The teal horizontal line is a rate of 2% YoY (the Fed’s target).
Why It Matters
SpaceX and Liquidity
-
The eye-popping volume of 522 million shares on SpaceX’s debut looks like infinite market liquidity, but it is actually a massive structural mirage. Because Elon Musk’s 42% stake and the early VC blocks are entirely locked down, institutional funds, passive index trackers, and retail traders are aggressively fighting over a tiny 4.2% public float.
-
The velocity of this float churn tells us that the initial market cap of $2.1 trillion is purely a reflection of overwhelming demand chasing artificially scarce supply. When the lockup periods eventually expire later this year and insiders begin to liquefy their equity, the market will face its first true test of structural support (details below).
Left in the Wake
-
If you’re a space stock and your name isn’t SpaceX then you got absolutely hammered on Friday. “Sell the news” is a very real thing in the markets and we caught a glimpse of that during Friday’s session. While smaller space names have been riding on the wings of SpaceX since rumors spread of them going public, they are now left in the wake as investors cashed in their profits. We can also assume that some of the blood shed by smaller names Friday had to do with investors taking the massive returns they’ve enjoyed for the last year to buy into SpaceX.
-
Here are Friday’s returns for some of the more popular “small” names: Yikes.
Retrieved from: https://www.tradingview.com/ on 06/12/2026
Inflation
-
Speaking of gravity, investors were also brought back down to earth this week with Wednesday’s CPI print. Inflation came in at +4.2% YoY, marking three straight months of increasing prices, and also the highest inflation print in almost three years.
-
This is not a temporary blip—it is a direct reflection of the ongoing energy shock triggered by the war in Iran, which has driven fuel oil up 58.9% and sent pain directly to consumer’s wallets via the $4.15+ national average gasoline prices. The broader market cannot run on tech euphoria forever when sticky shelter and explosive energy costs are actively draining consumer spending power.
|
|
|
|
What’s Next?
SpaceX Price Action
-
The IPO of SpaceX has been, unquestionably, the largest and most covered IPO in history. However, don’t ignore the clock. The average retail investor got access to buy into SpaceX for the first time on Friday, however accredited investors have had the ability to buy into SpaceX forever. Those early investors are mandated by the SEC to hold their shares in what’s known as a lockup period. That lockup period ends on December 9, 2026. It would not be surprising if the price begins dropping sharply when that date arrives. Right now SpaceX is running on hype and FOMO, however that will not last forever. We will get a true sense of the company’s value when the stock begins to find its fair-market price.
Smaller Space Names
-
Don’t be fooled by Friday’s performance of the smaller space tickers. Nothing has changed fundamentally for these companies. It’s fair to say that perhaps they’ve been overvalued from the hype of SpaceX, but the bloodbath in Friday’s session was purely technical. In fact, as a person who is very bullish on space and focusing on the long-term play, I welcome these stocks dropping even further. Eventually the mania of SpaceX will calm down, and savvy investors may begin to realize that the smaller names are now trading at a generational discount.
-
Transparency: I don’t own any SpaceX shares. I’m waiting for the hype to calm down a bit. The primary reason I’m doing this IS so I can keep averaging into the smaller names which will soon cross the threshold to being officially undervalued, a sentiment we haven’t seen in well over a year. I will be averaging into the tickers seen in the screenshot below:
-
$SATL
-
$RDW
-
$SIDU
-
$RKLB
-
$KTOS
-
$LUNR
-
$ARKX
CPI and FOMC
-
With CPI coming in at +4.2% YoY we are sure to see the easing narrative from the Federal Reserve shift. We can now consider any statements made by the Fed regarding pausing rates for an extended period of time as dovish. This will be Kevin Warsh’s first FOMC at the helm of the Federal Reserve so it’s our first chance to see what kind of chairman he will be. The markets are pricing in a virtual certainty that the Fed maintains rates where they are at 3.50-3.75%. The bond market has already priced this in, with bond yields showing signs of ANOTHER potential inversion, implying a strong move to safety by investors. Also, the average 30-year mortgage has spiked back up to 6.5%, the highest level since August 2025.
-
We have heard the words “higher for longer” for years now and, until recently, it seemed like that narrative was finally subsiding. However, with inflation back on the rise I strongly expect that narrative to return in full force. The CPI print shows that the primary cause of rising inflation was energy (as it usually is) so, as long as tensions in the middle east remain elevated we can expect inflation to continue rising while you die a little bit inside every time you fill up your gas tank.
|
|
|
|
In Short
-
SpaceX began trading on Friday at $150.00/share, ultimately closing at $160.95 with a market cap of $2.1 trillion. Elon Musk is now a trillionaire.
-
Other space names saw massive losses on Friday as investors cannabalized their positions to either cash in those massive returns, or take profits and buy into SpaceX. I believe this is temporary.
-
CPI came in at 4.2% YoY, marking the third straight month of increasing inflation and the highest levels in almost three years.
-
Kevin Warsh has his first FOMC as Fed Chairman on June 16/17. Markets are pricing in a rate PAUSE and preparing themselves for higher-for-longer. I expect the easing bias to vanish and talks of potential rate HIKES to be on the table.
Thanks for reading! Until next time, good luck out there and Godspeed.
|
|
|
|
|
|
References
Aerospace & Industry Developments:
Macroeconomic & Inflation Statistics:
-
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS). Consumer Price Index Summary: May 2026 Economic Release. Headline Consumer Price Index (CPI-U) and Consumer Price Index Commodity Groupings.
Equity Market & Public Float Data:
-
Nasdaq Exchange Market Data Systems. Daily Transaction Tape, Volume Metrics, and Order Book Statistics for SpaceX (Ticker: $SPCX). June 12, 2026 Session.
-
Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). SpaceX Form S-1 Registration Statement / Final Prospectus. Share Structure, Underwriter Allocations, and Lockup Provisions.
-
TradingView Market Data Feeds. Intraday Liquidity, 5-Minute Candle Intervals, and Moving Average Volume Profiles for SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust ($SPY) and Rocket Lab USA ($RKLB).
Monetary Policy & Interest Rate Data:
-
Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) 2026 Policy Calendar and Institutional Statements.
-
Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey (PMMS). 30-Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage Average and Yield Volatility Indices.
|
|
|
|
Disclaimer:
The views and opinions expressed in The Pioneer Perspective are those of Daniel Harlow and Pioneer Financial, LLC and are provided for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing in this publication constitutes financial, investment, tax, or legal advice.
Market data and information are obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but their accuracy cannot be guaranteed. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and all investments involve risk, including the potential loss of principal.
Readers are encouraged to conduct their own research or consult a qualified financial professional before making any investment decisions.
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
