World War III on the Horizon?

 

What We’ll Cover:

·       What Happened

·       Why it Matters

·       Digging Deeper into the Events

·       Bottom Line

What Happened

Early Saturday, the U.S. and Israel launched Operation Epic Fury (codenamed "Roaring Lion" by Israel), a massive joint aerial campaign targeting over 20 Iranian provinces. President Trump has confirmed the death of 40 senior Iranian officials, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei following a precision strike on his Tehran compound.

Why it Matters

This is no longer just deterrence. By eliminating Khamenei and over 40 senior officials, the U.S. and Israel have effectively decapitated the Iranian leadership. Trump has explicitly called on the Iranian people to take over their government, shifting the mission from tactical strikes to active regime change.

What’s more, geopolitical changes have a direct impact on US markets. Actions like the strikes we’ve been witnessing from the Trump administration are shifting the world in ways we haven’t seen in decades.

Let’s Dig a Little Deeper

There are three things that we must discuss regarding recent events:

·       The key difference between targeted strikes and war

·       The claims that these strikes were illegal and unprecedented

·       The potential market impacts here in the US

The Strikes - Precision or Escalation?

US forces targeted specific locations in 20 different provinces in Iran. These targets included air defenses, naval sites, nuclear sites, and compounds holding top officials. These strikes were coordinated and have unfortunately resulted in the confirmed death of three Americans. The operation utilized over 200 Israeli jets and a massive U.S. naval presence, including the USS Abraham Lincoln and USS Theodore Roosevelt. Here are some of the targets:

Leadership Compounds: The “Green District” in Tehran was the focal point. Seven missiles hit the complex housing the Supreme Leader’s residence, the Presidential Palace, and the National Security Council.

Nuclear Infrastructure: Significant strikes targeted the Isfahan nuclear complex, the Parchin explosives research facility, and various administrative hubs of the Iran Atomic Energy Agency in Tehran.

Ballistic Missile “Cities”: To prevent a counter-launch, the U.S. and Israel hit the Jam missile city, the Amind missile center near Tabriz, and launch sites in Kermanshah and Khorramabad.

Naval & Logistics: Attacks were reported on the Kharg Island oil terminal and the IRGC naval infrastructure in the Persian Gulf to prevent any attempt to block the Strait of Hormuz.

It must be noted that these strikes have resulted in retaliation from the Iranian military. So far the backlash has come in the form of strikes against allied bases in Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, UAE, and Iraq. Meanwhile, the Iranian government has issued an internet blackout to prevent uprisings against what is left of their leadership. Reports of Iranian civilian’s attitude towards the strikes are mixed, with some celebrating and others chanting “Death to America.”

Three American service members have been killed, with five other severely wounded. We are a veteran owned company, so please believe that we don’t take this lightly and we pray for their loved ones. We have been stationed in Bahrain, deployed through the straights of Hormuz, flown missions in Kuwait, and spent time in the UAE. We are very familiar with this area and the heightened alert status that comes with strikes like these. This is why we feel the need to shed light on the claims that these were illegal acts of war, congressional approval requirements, etc.

Let’s Talk About the Claims

These actions by President Trump are not unprecedented by any stretch of the imagination. We are neutral here at Pioneer Financial and don’t want to take sides on anything that doesn’t strictly have to do with financial markets. We are not here to say that President Trump made the right or wrong decision, or tell you how to think about it. We want to examine the data, because in a world full of engagement farming it can be difficult to sift through the madness. Currently social media and the news are littered with people saying the strikes that POTUS has ordered are illegal, some even going so far as to say they are war crimes. You, as a reader seeking information, should have some context. Why does this context matter? Because it may impact investment strategy.

Frankly, the claim that congressional approval was needed is asinine. Here is a list of lethal strikes carried out by each POTUS going back to President Bill Clinton, all without congressional approval. If you don’t believe us, please check our sources at the bottom:

·       President Clinton - Carried out strikes in Kosovo, Bosnia, Iraq, Somalia, and Afghanistan resulting in the deaths more than 2,000 people.

·       President George W. Bush - Leaving aside the invasion of Iraq and Afghanistan, carried out strikes in Pakistan, Yemen, and Somalia.

·       President Obama - Carried out over 500 drone strikes and thousands of SORTIES resulting in the deaths of at least 6,000 people, including over 800 civilians.

·       President Trump 1 - Carried out over 2,200 total strikes resulting in the deaths of at least 30,000 ISIS/Taliban fighters, as well as over 1,000 civilians.

·       President Biden - Carried out over 500 strikes, resulting in the deaths of around 2,500 combatants and 200 civilians. These numbers don’t include the chaos from the Afghanistan pullout.

Market Impacts

The reaction from the markets over the next couple weeks will be where the context above will be revealed or rejected. There are four sectors that we want to highlight.

·       Bonds

·       Oil

·       Equities

·       Gold/Silver

Bonds: Bond prices are uncertain at the moment. There are two schools of thought on what the bond markets will do come Monday. The bull case, bonds will rally due to war/recessionary fears as well as global uncertainty and safe haven demand. The bear case, bonds will fall and yields will rise due to inflationary fears from the price of oil going up. Oil staying at $100/barrel or more is cause for concern and puts an even tougher job in the hands of the Fed.

Oil: Will likely rise sharply. The straights of Hormuz facilitates the trading of 20% of global oil. With shipping companies suspending routes taking them through the straights due to recent threats/attacks by Iran, oil will almost certainly rise.

Equities: Will likely fall. Global uncertainty and fears of war are inherently risk-off. Crypto suffered over the weekend, although they have mostly rebounded and erased losses.

Gold/Silver: Will likely rise. Geopolitical uncertainty is a textbook bullish signal for precious metals. When fiat currency is in question, gold and silver are almost always the benefactor.

Bottom Line

We don’t believe that WWIII is on the horizon. President Trump has made it clear from both his terms as POTUS that he is more in favor of swift decisive action and not prolonged war. We don’t think “boots on the ground” is a probable outcome from this weekend. Although Iran has responded and unfortunately taken the lives of three Americans, they are behaving more like a country trying to maintain dignity rather than a country that wants war. These strikes have been happening for decades on both sides. More than likely we will see volatility in the markets as investors try to digest the events, but we expect things to calm down in a couple of weeks. Money talks, and it is always easier to see whether or not geopolitical events are worrisome based on how the markets react, and more importantly, whether or not they sustain that reaction. There are thousands of analysts on the street whose job it is to assess risk and respond accordingly. If these individuals deem a risk doesn’t hold long-term credibility then we have reason to listen to them.

Thanks for reading! Until next time, good luck out there and Godspeed.

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© 2025 Pioneer Financial, LLC — All rights reserved. This newsletter is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

References:

Airwars. (n.d.). The covert drone wars archive: Bureau of Investigative Journalism (TBIJ). https://airwars.org/archives/bij-drone-war

Amnesty International. (2019, April 25). Syria: Unprecedented investigation reveals US-led coalition killed more than 1,600 civilians in Raqqa ‘death trap’. https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/press-release/2019/04/syria-unprecedented-investigation-reveals-us-led-coalition-killed-more-than-1600-civilians-in-raqqa-death-trap/

Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED). (2020). ACLED annual report 2019: The year in review. https://acleddata.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/ACLED_AnnualReport2019_FINAL_Web.pdf

New America. (n.d.). World of drones: Drone wars methodology. International Security Program. https://www.newamerica.org/future-security/reports/world-drones/

Reiss Center on Law and Security. (2026). War Powers Resolution reporting project: 48-hour report database.

https://warpowers.lawandsecurity.org/