May 22 2026

The Death of the S&P 500

Stocks Pump to New Highs While Consumers Pay New Highs at the Pump
The stock market is hitting records because it is completely detached from the American consumer. This massive, inflation-adjusted AI investment is now twice the size of the dot-com era.
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May 15, 2026

The Tug-of-War, Inflation vs. Record Highs

Inflation Parties Like it's 2022 and the Stock Market Rallies Into Further Bubble Territory
A heavy combination of stubborn inflation data, surging oil prices, and rising geopolitical tensions took the wind right out of the market's sails by Friday. It looks like higher-for-longer interest rate policy is alive and well.
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May 8, 2026

Risk On, Risk Off

The Stock Market Hits Record Highs Despite War and a Divided Fed
For the first time in over two months we get to talk about something other than the war in Iran. Smell the roses, for however briefly they may blossom.
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April 24, 2026

The End of an Era

The Days of the Government Stepping in to Save the Economy May Be Over
What does this mean for interest rates? Warsh will likely begin cutting rates to the max extent possible. So will longer duration bonds go up?
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April 17, 2026

Polymarket - The Only Market Where Knowing Early Isn't Illegal

Insiders Turn to Gambling Websites to Throw Down Big Money, and it Matters
Some of these bets are simply too well-timed to be luck. What's more, it has become a pattern, suggesting that there are officials with inside/top secret knowledge using their position to churn a profit. We will go into specifics in the "Let's Dig Deeper" section.
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April 10, 2026

The Islamabad Collapse

What the Headlines Aren't Telling You About U.S./Iran Negotiations
In response to failing negotiations, President Trump has ordered a U.S. military blockade in the SOH. Here are the highlights:
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Monthly Macro - March, 2026

War, Wells, and the Waning Dollar

Iran Shifts Strategy, Oil Continues to Climb, and the Petrodollar Faces Headwinds
As an investor, you should keep a close eye on the Federal Reserve, not just the Iran war. High oil volatility (120+) makes the Fed terrified of a 1970s-style inflation spiral. When that volatility drops back down, it gives the Fed permission to stop talking about rate hikes and start focusing on recession risk again.
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March 27, 2026

From the Red Sea to a Sea of Red

The War Escalates and Equities Continue to Suffer
If both of these shipping lanes can be controlled by enemy forces then the entire artery that flows energy from the middle east to Europe is blocked.
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March 20, 2026

Is the Stock Market Crashing?

Yields and Inflation Rise, Stocks Drop
Odds of a recession happening in 2026 have surged from 21% just two weeks ago to 37% today.
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March 13, 2026

Succession, Oil, and the Fear of Prolonged Warfare

Breaking Down the Chaos in Iran
SECWAR Hegseth declaring that the US is no longer aiming for limited strikes but rather shifting to a strategy of total destruction is, by definition, escalation.
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March 6, 2026

Empty Tanks and Empty Desks

Gas Prices Rise While Job Growth Slows, a Recipe for Disaster
Now, the Fed is concerned about “stagflation” which is the rare times where an economy sees slow growth, high unemployment, and high inflation.
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February 27, 2026

Is WWIII on the Horizon?

The Beginning of a New Conflict in the Middle East
President Trump has confirmed the death of 40 senior Iranian officials, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei following a precision strike on his Tehran compound.
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February 20, 2026

Nine Rings for Mortal Men

SCOTUS, GDP, and Inflation
On Friday, in a 6-3 decision, the supreme court struck down President Trump’s tariff policy.
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February 13, 2026

Underneath the Surface

When the Labor Market, Liquidity, and Bonds tell a Different Story than Headlines
Let’s pretend that the media headlines are the Ministry of Magic, doing everything they possibly can to keep order, despite a clear threat underneath the surface. Somewhere in a dark hallway of Fox News one can quietly here the word “Imperio” uttered, followed by analysts and talking heads mindlessly participating in the narrative that everything is hunky-dory.
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Monthly Macro - January, 2026

Liquidity is Drying up!

In the Game of Valuations, you win or you deleverage
Over the last week the markets have started seeing significant selloffs in risk-assets. Big tech and crypto are down bad and X is flooded with people wondering what is going on. We want you to know that the reason for this selloff is tightening liquidity.
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January 23, 2026

Double, Double, Coil and Trouble

The Big Tech Pivot and Coiling Bond Yields
After years of having a tunnel-visioned growth mindset, many big names are now moving towards efficiency, infrastructure, and perhaps dividend increases.
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January 16, 2026

Big Government Versus Big Credit Cards

Why Your Credit Card Might Not Work After January 20, 2026
On Friday, January 9, President Trump proposed a 10% limit on the interest payments that banks are allowed to charge on their credit cards. This isn’t just a hit to potential banking profits, but rather a complete restructuring of America’s lending system.
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January 9, 2026

The 21st Century Game of Thrones

Jobs, Defense, Big Tech, and the Final Frontier
With a payroll miss and a drop in unemployment what we’re likely looking at is certain sectors slowing and others still showing strength.
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Monthly Macro - December, 2025

The End of an Historic Year

The Makings of an Even More Historic 2026
We have just concluded a historic year in global markets. 2025 was marked by volatility, record gains and losses, a shift in economic policy, and interesting signals that ready the field for a more dramatic 2026. Here are five big ticket items that happened this year, to refresh your memory.
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December 19, 2025

The Fed CUTS Rates

The Fed Slashes Rates and the Labor Market Slashes Jobs
In 1992, James Carville uttered a quote that has lasted generations: “It’s the economy, stupid.” We’d like to amend that quote, if you’ll allow us, and answer the rate cut question with this: It’s the labor market, stupid.
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SPECIAL EDITION

The End of Quantitative Tightening

The Historical Implications of Major Fed Shifts
With crypto being more unsure of itself than Brutus trying to figure out if he should just ask for a promotion, Japan’s economy in question, and other equities volatility concerns, there’s a lot to cover. The most significant news though, is the Federal Reserve officially ending quantitative tightening.
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November 28, 2025

The Bubble Burst that Never Was

Government Shutdowns, FOMC, and the AI Boom Softening
Recessions don't happen when everybody calls for it, especially when the market is only a few percent off all-time highs
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